As the Election Calculus describes the election could be grim for the SNP, predicting the SNP will lose ten seats, nine to the Tories and one to the Liberals (*).
In brackets I've added the % chance of winning for the SNP candidate vs their primary opposition in that seat, highlighting that the differences are minute and thus extra campaigning efforts could make the difference between winning and losing. I've also added links to the candidate's social media pages so you can reach out with support.
- Moray (49 vs 50) - Angus Robertson: Twitter, Facebook
- East Lothian (45 vs 41) - George Kerevan: Twitter, Facebook
- Renfrewshire East (39 vs 44) - Kirsten Oswald: Twitter, Facebook
- Aberdeen South (41 vs 49) - Calum McCaig: Twitter, Facebook
- Perth and North Perthshire (45 vs 44) - Pete Wishart: Twitter
- Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine (35 vs 61) - Stuart Donaldson: Twitter, Facebook
- Edinburgh South West (45 vs 44) - Joanna Cherry: Twitter, Facebook
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (20 vs 77) - Calum Kerr: Twitter, Facebook
- Dumfries and Galloway (34 vs 61) - Richard Arkless: Twitter, Facebook
- (*) Dumbartonshire East (38 vs 30) - John Nicholson: Twitter, Facebook
To begin some ideas on campaigning strategies for these seats, I would strongly emphasize this Guardian article, which talks about how the Tories are leveraging Facebook to target marginal seats, as the spending is more difficult to assign to national or regional spending.
As I describe in this previous blog, I piloted these ads for Mairi McCallan and they are indeed very effective at reaching specific, local audiences.